13 réponses à ce sujet

[supoman]

I was missing the last two hakkon wapons, did a few nm runs today and got one hakkon then after that last hakkon the next match. What is the probability of this happening?

[Proto]

4th and 5th Hakkon weapons have a 2% drop rate:

 

2% = 0.02 = 1/50

 

0.02 * 0.02 = 0.0004 = 0.04%

 

1/50 * 1/50 = 1/2500

 

This happened to a party member of mine as well. 

[ErySakasegawa]

I know you! I guess 4th weapon should be around 2%, 5th weapon should drop around 1%. That's 2/100*1/100=2/10000=0,02% probability of this event happening...you should play lottery! xD

[BreakJohn]

Why can't this happen to me? :/

[Snakebite]

The chance of getting the fourth or fifth immediately after the one before it would be 1/50, regardless of the drop chance of the one before it. It would be 1/2500 if you got the last 3 back to back.

[Geth Supremacy]

I've salvaged a ton of Hakkon weapons.  I salvaged every one I got on sight until I got a max damage one as my chance to get one was pretty high.  I got the 172 dagger and then kept it moving.

 

Got 2 more that were very good and worth keeping.

 

As long as it took to get #4 I wasn't going to salvage another one until I had all of them + amulet and get them 1 at a time that way.  It's RNG but it was a lot of runs from #3 to #4.  Getting 4 and 5 in a row would be impressive.

[supoman]

Ah I see, well the odds are really really low. I honestly really don't think that I'm that lucky, maybe the drop rate chance got messed up somehow on the server side and my chances were really high that moment.

[tempest238]

Ah I see, well the odds are really really low. I honestly really don't think that I'm that lucky, maybe the drop rate chance got messed up somehow on the server side and my chances were really high that moment.

You are right, the drop rate chance did get messed up.

Some people with super high rollovers farmed NM FC dragons when the patch first hit live. Going 10+ hrs doing runs in under 15 minutes each. Some of those people then complained that the weapons were to easy to obtain. So the drop rate got nerfed hard.

 

Honestly, bioware needs to stop listening to the top 1% when it comes to balancing this game.

 

/mini rant

[Redalertixii]

The chance of getting the fourth or fifth immediately after the one before it would be 1/50, regardless of the drop chance of the one before it. It would be 1/2500 if you got the last 3 back to back.

Regarding your first sentence, you're looking at the event of getting the Hakkon weapons being mutually exclusive, which would normally be correct but it's not given the question. The chances of getting two in a row are much lower than getting one, which is how you're viewing it. Proto's calculation would be correct. You multiply the chances of the events happening individually together. They're still mutually exclusive, assuming you can only get one weapon at a time, but happening back-to-back changes the perspective and brings individual events to one event.

I'm not sure where you're getting 1/2500 for 3 weapons in 3 consecutive runs, though. Getting the last three in a row would be 1/50000 if we have a 5% chance of getting our third weapon. I remember Luke saying something like 1-15%, 2-7.5%, 3-5%, 4-2%, 5-2%.

[Silversmurf]

For me?  No chance whatsoever.

[T_elic]

Why can't this happen to me? :/

 

I can't even seem to get my hands on my second hakkon weapon

[Snakebite]

Regarding your first sentence, you're looking at the event of getting the Hakkon weapons being mutually exclusive, which would normally be correct but it's not given the question. The chances of getting two in a row are much lower than getting one, which is how you're viewing it. Proto's calculation would be correct. You multiply the chances of the events happening individually together. They're still mutually exclusive, assuming you can only get one weapon at a time, but happening back-to-back changes the perspective and brings individual events to one event.

I'm not sure where you're getting 1/2500 for 3 weapons in 3 consecutive runs, though. Getting the last three in a row would be 1/50000 if we have a 5% chance of getting our third weapon. I remember Luke saying something like 1-15%, 2-7.5%, 3-5%, 4-2%, 5-2%.

I viewed the question as "What are the chances of getting one Hakkon weapon immediately after the one before it?", in which case the first drop is a requirement for the chain to begin, and the odds I showed were the probability of the chain continuing.

That obviously was not the question, and I am sorry if I confused anyone.

[JiaJM98]

Guys, are we playing the same game here?   Looking at those posts, I'm in tears! Only just got my first hakkon weapon last Sunday. I swear the drop rate is, like, 1 in 50 runs for me! And that's supposed to be 15 to 20%? 

[Samahl na Revas]

>< I'm going to finish the challenge before my last weapon drops.