There's no doubt multiple formulas at play in ME3MP, separate ones for not only GETTING Ultra Rare drops, but also for WHAT you get when you get one. How many people do you know who have said something like "I didn't start getting Hurricane upgrades until EVERY other weapon was maxxed", or Lancer, or whatever. Or that they got several UR packs in a row. Of course, in this day and age, it's impossible to say what the codes entail, because they are so gosh darn complicated now.
Not necessarily. All they would actually have to do is program it to give x% chance of a UR with each pack, but per instance rather than overall. Think of it like rolling a 10-sided dice as opposed to picking an object from a bag that contains ten objects, without putting it back again; you can roll that dice as many times as you like but you may never get a ten, whereas you're guaranteed to pick the object you want from the bag within 10 tries at the very most. If they were taking the dice approach it would account for the times people get a f***-ton of URs very quickly, and for the times you get ****** all for months. I'm sure that the algorithms are a bit more complicated than just rolling a virtual dice, but it really wouldn't surprise me if that's what it is at it's bare-bones level.
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