You're doing so much wrong it isn't worth explaining how wrong it is
I see. Are you trying to win the "biggest jerk" on the internet award or something? Because prior to this statement I had thought you seemed to be a fairly decent guy, but I'm now thinking I made quite an error in judgment. Feel free to apologize for that statement, though, and I'll accept it.
Awesome, math! First, let's note I'm not factoring in Scenting Blood (10% more crit chance if a nearby enemy is under 35%) as you seem to be claiming we should be 1-2 shotting everything anyway, right? Let's see...
final_damage = (base_damage * rand(0.95 to 1.05) - armor * (1 - armor_penetration))
* (ability_multiplier)
* (1 + critical_damage_bonus + flanking_bonus)
* (1 + attack_bonus + damage_multiplier + type_bonus)
* (1 - magic_resistance)
Well, ability multiplier is easy to factor in later -- just multiply by the proper amount (so if an ability is 300% weapon damage just multiply by 3).
final_damage = (base_damage * rand(0.95 to 1.05) - armor * (1 - armor_penetration))
* (1 + critical_damage_bonus + flanking_bonus)
* (1 + attack_bonus + damage_multiplier + type_bonus)
* (1 - magic_resistance)
We're talking about a physical attack here, so magic resistance doesn't apply.
final_damage = (base_damage * rand(0.95 to 1.05) - armor * (1 - armor_penetration))
* (1 + critical_damage_bonus + flanking_bonus)
* (1 + attack_bonus + damage_multiplier + type_bonus)
Type bonus is single player only, so get rid of that. Let's also just use the average weapon damage as the overall result is the same (on average).
final_damage = (base_damage - armor * (1 - armor_penetration))
* (1 + critical_damage_bonus + flanking_bonus)
* (1 + attack_bonus + damage_multiplier)
We're attacking from the front here so can ignore flanking bonus. Let's also remove the attack bonus and damage bonus for now -- like ability multiplier, can factor it in later (if you have 50% attack and 50% damage bonus then just multiply the final result by 2).
final_damage = (base_damage - armor * (1 - armor_penetration)) * (1 + critical_damage_bonus)
Great. Now, since we're not using any weapon or talent that could reduce enemy armor and we're trying to find out what the benefit of critical hits are overall, let's combine the first part as it's effectively a constant.
final_damage = (damage_after_armor) * (1 + critical_damage_bonus)
Okay, that's easier to work with for now. So what is the critical_damage_bonus? Well, according to this thread, this thread, and personal testing...it's 40%.
So let's look at an example of how wrong my combat estimations are:
"Overall crit chance is currently 47% crit with 38% extra crit damage (1.78 times normal damage), which is an average of 36.66% more damage."
47% of the time I'll do a critical hit for 1.78 times the normal damage (40% base + 20% ring + 18% on weapon). So 0.47 * 1.78 = 0.8366. The other 53% of the time I'll land a normal hit for 1.00 times the normal damage. 0.8366 + 0.53 = 1.3666.
Which, of course, is 36.66% more damage than a normal hit. It doesn't matter what the armor of the enemy is, what the ability modifier is, or attack bonus + damage bonus is...critical hits specifically are increasing my average damage per hit by 33.66% (remember, multiplicative with everything else).
Hmm. I'll be darned, looks like my original math was correct, wasn't it?
OH I KNOW! Maybe you meant my comment of the benefit of crit versus attack. The question was whether 10.5% attack was worth more than 5.25% crit (I rounded earlier since the precision wasn't (and still isn't) important). Well, let's see. 5.25% more crit changes our earlier math to 0.5225 * 1.78 + 0.4775 = 1.40755 benefit from crit and crit damage overall. 1.40755/1.3666= 2.996% increase overall. So my 3% estimate? Pretty accurate.
How about attack? Well, Reaver gets 18 Strength from leveling (from both of our builds), I don't know if there's hidden increase as well but let's assume there's not for now (but easy enough to factor in if so). Maul has 18% attack, armor/rings/neck/belt won't effect attack % specifically. So we're at 27% attack overall. I have 22 willpower so that's 5.5% more attack, 32.5% total. Damage % is trickier because Reaver gets more damage with lower health. So we'll run two calculations, one at 50% health and one at 100% health. In this case we're figuring Reaver will always have the following: 20% from Rampage, 50% from Dragon Rage upgrade, and 30% from one stack of Fervor. So at full health that's 132.5% overall. At 50% health it's 75% more so 207.5% overall.
At full health we'd be going from 2.325 multiplier to 2.43. 2.43/2.325 = 4.5% bonus. At 50% health we'd be going from 3.075 multiplier to 3.18. 3.18/3.075 = 3.4% increase. My 4% estimate overall seems pretty on the mark.
So let's put all of this together. Let's assume a 0 armor enemy, 100 damage weapon, non-flanking, 38% crit damage bonus from gear, 32.5% attack bonus, 150% of weapon damage, and 100% damage bonus (full health Reaver). We should get 100 * (1 + 0.325 + 1) * 1.5 = 348.75 damage on hit, and 100 + (1 + 0.325 + 1) * (1.4 + 0.38) * 1.5 = 620.775 damage on a crit.
Even better, a spreadsheet *that agrees with my math.*
Gives 348 and 619.44 respectively due to having to enter attack % as a whole number (so 32% versus 32.5%).
Go ahead, I'm eagerly awaiting you backing up your statement of "If you want some answers to why your combat estimations are wrong."
Yes, I'm aware. That doesn't change my statement of "I'm still using Devour as I think I need/want the extra survivability at the moment." Even if I crit *16* times in an 8 second window, I could only use War Horn every 8 seconds. I can use Devour like every 2-3 seconds. Which leads to my line about "With more promotions I'd feel more comfortable dropping Devour (larger effective health pool and lower cooldown on War Horn)."
Amulet: Dexterity or Stamina amulet
Maul Weapon upgrades: All offense leather on Maul, specifically Bound Two Handed Haft and Firm Pommel, using Craggy Skin
Rings: One Heal on Kill for safety is OK, but otherwise Critical Damage Bonus rings x2 or a Dragon Rage Ring
Armor Upgrades: Constitution & Heal bonus
Belt: Health
Potions:
Rock Armor, then Resist tonics. Cold and Electric for FC or swap out one for Pitch Grenade. Ideally the party all has different resist tonics available for the match since they can often affect the entire party for one player using a resist tonic.
Let's see...
Amulet: sorry, want the survivability at the moment on Nightmare (note that if I have 60%+ crit damage from gear that's less than a 5% increase overall assuming I crit every time. Won't change anything from 1-2 shots to needing two full cycles of Dragon Rage).
Maul: DPS loss (again, this was literally about walking up to a Terror demon and slamming it with Dragon Rage. Crits only have a 25% chance to cause panic and using War Horn wasn't even mentioned -- also, that's not 1-2 shotting something using Dragon Rage/Rampage if you're bringing in War Horn)
Rings: Got one Crit Damage bonus ring. Other is Crit Chance, see above.
Armor Upgrades: yep.
Belt: yep
Potions: irrelevant for your claim (but yep).
You should be doing at least 2k damage per strike of Dragon Rage, with the third hit being a double hit of 4k damage total, for 8k damage on NM, which kills most enemies, which is three Dragon Rage presses total.
Yeah, except I mentioned Terror Demons *specifically* as that's what I went and tested against. Which have 14552 HP according to this. So using your math...
1: 2k
2: 4k
3: 8k
4: 10k
5: 12k
6: 16k (overkill by 1.5kish)
HEY THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I SAID IT TOOK ME. Eight individual hits through six actual uses of Dragon Rage. In order to kill it in six individual hits/five uses I'd have to do 2426 damage per crit (which is over 20% more than the figures you gave)...PLUS I'm needing to use War Horn. Good thing I'm
doing so much wrong it isn't worth explaining how wrong it is, and when it is far more important to explain what's right.
So let's summarize so far:
A. your spreadsheet agrees with my math
B. my original claim is backed up by your math
C. I'm using Devour over War Horn due to survivability concerns at my (low) promotion level, which you disagree with
D. my current set-up is actually killing that Terror Demon *faster* (compared to your hypothetical minimum numbers) -- because I'm not needing to spend the time on War Horn first
If you cannot do at least that much, you need a stronger team or to bump it down to Perilous until you're high enough level to do so. You're missing damage passives (fervor/coup de grace/dragon rage upgrades, etc) that do so.
Or...you might consider that as someone still fairly new to Nightmare that I *might* be doing it at level 20. Hint, I am.
If you are actually doing all the things I've told you, and still cannot roflstomp NM, you are having issues with strategic choices on the map.
I didn't say I was having trouble in Nightmare. I was disputing your claim of
"I have a 3 second rule. If it isn't dead within three seconds, then you're killing too slow and something's wrong. Usually they're dead even before that. Maybe you got trolled by a dragon. Maybe the red archer fog of friendly fire doom occurred. Most likely your build/gear setup is poorly optimized or insufficient. However something is definitely wrong if you're not killing an enemy faster than 3 seconds. Enemies should be dead within 1-2 ability casts hence the 3 second rule of thumb. Twin Fangs / Deathblow , Wrath of Heaven / Spell Purge, Rampage / Dragon Rage are classic examples. After the 2 second mark, enemies become incredibly more dangerous, as they can react by then and counter your attacks and/or troll you."
Now your own numbers that you provided indicate your claim is wrong. A Terror Demon (which has the second lowest HP of demons (and also low armor), only Wraith appears lower) according to you is taking 6 ability casts of Dragon Rage (eight hits total) plus 1 ability cast of War Horn. 1-2 does not remotely equal 7.