19 réponses à ce sujet

[theItinerant]

So I got my first Hakkon weapon on my very first NM dragon kill, and I was like "this is going to be so much easier than grinding my dragon weaps!"

 

Well, it's been 87 NM dragon kills without a second... If the probability for me to get my second Hakkon on any given kill is 7%, then the probability for me to go 87 kills in a row with 0 successes is 0.001811 or approximately 0.2%

 

If you told me that I'd have a 99.8% chance of getting at least one more weapon by this time, I'd have felt pretty happy about my chances. I realize that every single kill is a separate trial - each one has the relatively low chance of 7% - however, given a sufficiently large pool of trials (87 definitely qualifies) my odds should have been damn near 100% (99.8%) to have one by now.

 

I know there are going to be outliers in any set of probabilistic data - ie all the assholes who have all 5 in under 30 kills (you know who you are...) - but this is starting to get ridiculous and make me wonder if there are any known bugs with drop rates.

 

OK, done crying. 

 

[edit: not done crying]

[Proto]

Snakebite is probably well above 500. Still looking for a 5th. RNG can be cruel.

[Silversmurf]

Snakebite is probably well above 500. Still looking for a 5th. RNG can be cruel.

 

Bah the RNG Bah

 

Seriously though, that sucks monkey balls.  I thought I was having a bad run with 155 no 5th.

 

Guy I know got in 27 wins...

 

Yeah, a 2% chance per game is still 98% sh*t outta luck EVERY GAME.    It's not play 50 games and get it.

 

I still maintain it should have been 1 star per weapon in a chest, like how the Drakescale armour currently works OR 5 challenges.  Even if the 5th was a separate challenge with 250 NM wins needed it would still be something to work towards.  Too bad that ship has sailed.

[xsvTOYZ]

So I got my first Hakkon weapon on my very first NM dragon kill, and I was like "this is going to be so much easier than grinding my dragon weaps!"

 

Well, it's been 87 NM dragon kills without a second... If the probability for me to get my second Hakkon on any given kill is 7%, then the probability for me to go 87 kills in a row with 0 successes is 0.001811 or approximately 0.2%

 

If you told me that I'd have a 99.8% chance of getting at least one more weapon by this time, I'd have felt pretty happy about my chances. I realize that every single kill is a separate trial - each one has the relatively low chance of 7% - however, given a sufficiently large pool of trials (87 definitely qualifies) my odds should have been damn near 100% (99.8%) to have one by now.

 

I know there are going to be outliers in any set of probabilistic data - ie all the assholes who have all 5 in under 30 kills (you know who you are...) - but this is starting to get ridiculous and make me wonder if there are any known bugs with drop rates.

 

OK, done crying.

over 50 here and still only 1 for me too

[theItinerant]

Thanks for the stories of solidarity... misery, does indeed, love company. 

 

In all seriousness I don't wish this luck on anyone and would be happier seeing everyone get em in 27 runs (I know a guy too). If I don't get a second weapon by run 100 I'm going to break my staff down and see if that can get my drop mojo flowing again.

 

Suggestion: Put specific weapons at specific kill totals - ie 10, 25, 50, 100, 200... This would improve the prestige that's associated with each of those weapons as people know what it took to get them other than pure luck. 

[Beerfish]

[theItinerant]

I still maintain it should have been 1 star per weapon in a chest, like how the Drakescale armour currently works OR 5 challenges.  Even if the 5th was a separate challenge with 250 NM wins needed it would still be something to work towards.  Too bad that ship has sailed.

 

This.

[kaileena_sands]

Bah the RNG Bah

 

Seriously though, that sucks monkey balls.  I thought I was having a bad run with 155 no 5th.

 

Guy I know got in 27 wins...

 

Just PM me the nickname, I know a guy.

 

And yeah. I got the first three easy (15-20 runs) BUT THEN I HIT AN IMMOVABLE WALL. Every game, I get more and more aggravated (especially since those 2 are the weapons I wanted the most - bow and GS). It's been so many runs that I am starting to just want to delete the game off my ssd and be done with it.

 

It's just... very discouraging because I hear that thing about people with 500 games without getting the 5th and I know that realistically if that happens for me, I'll just never get them. I don't play that much and I'll just be GS-free forever.

[GreySpectre]

I got my second after 60 runs. Not as bad as you, but just as agitating. 50 runs after that, and still no sight of the 3rd which has a similar drop rate.

I think I'll just stop after the third one, really not worth playing FC again and again and again and again.

[HelenCarnate]

Got my 1st on my first and 2nd on my 5th dragon kill.  Dont think my luck will continue though with the remainder.

[TheThirdRace]

Well, if it's of any consolation, here's my friend story...

He was very lucky to get his first Hakkon weapon after like 4 games. Then, he went thru something called a dry spell, nothing much, just around 150 games... But the story ends well, after getting his second weapon around game #155, he got the 3 others in less than 10 games. Just to show you how RNG can screw you badly, but can also be in your favor once in a lifetime

[orange_apples]

I know it wouldn't mean much considering how crap the loot tables are arranged, but they should upgrade the chests so the Superb chest has a guaranteed Unique and the large chest has guaranteed Rare.

[Ricksmiley]

I know it wouldn't mean much considering how crap the loot tables are arranged, but they should upgrade the chests so the Superb chest has a guaranteed Unique and the large chest has guaranteed Rare.

Level appropriate unique not lvl 8 garbage nobody will use. And runes should not count. I'm sure most of us here have more than we will ever use

[xsvTOYZ]

lol I got mad and tossed all my armor upgrades  3 weeks ago nearly 200 pieces kept getting inventory full notices  

then the new armor comes out   oh well  

been on I dunno 50+ plus dragons 1 hakkon

I wish they were on a set drop  

love the gave but soooooooo  frustrated  I toss all but 3 of every superb rune because  how many more do I need?

I get everything it seems after my buddies have it 2 weeks 

this is life and it just reminds me life aint fair but then again  this is a game and kinda should be fair 

[Jack Black]

It's a pity that we don't have the information how many people got this new equipment

[Sidney]

Level appropriate unique not lvl 8 garbage nobody will use. And runes should not count. I'm sure most of us here have more than we will ever use

Yeah I burned 100k...got plenty of purples, just none of them were at all useful.

[ProperWarhawk]

I think I'm at 85 NM games and I'm still missing three weapons

[BiggyDX]

Maybe I shouldn't tell you all how long it took to get all mine then...for fear of being burned at the stake.

[ProperWarhawk]

Maybe I shouldn't tell you all how long it took to get all mine then...for fear of being burned at the stake.

27! He did it in 27! Burn the wizard!!

[BiggyDX]

27! He did it in 27! Burn the wizard!!

 

YOU RAT!!! I curse you to never get the last two Hakkon Weapons