24 réponses à ce sujet

[o_sania]

Ok who close with math calculate please how many item should i open for Hakkon weapon drop from the chest:

Condition: im at top loot tier 

 

What we know as Luke said:

Hakkon ones are in there too, they're just only in the top loot tables and super duper rare. I believe if you're at the highest loot level you have a 10% chance for an item to be in the highest bucket and then within that it's like a 1% chance to be a Hakkon weapon (or some similar math)

 

Thanks.

 

Let's see ...

(10*1)/(100*100) = 0.1%

Which means that if you drop an item, they're 99.9% chance it isn't a Hakkon weap

We are supposed to search here for which value our odds will be at least 50%

But the numbers are too large for my calculator

 

(99.9^150)/(100^150)x100 = 86.0643382683048%

 

At 150 items you have 100-86.0643382683048 = 13.935661731692% to get a Hakkon weap

 

EDIT :

EXCEL SO POWERFULL

(99.9^8)/(100^8)x100 =

99,2027944069945%

to not drop a hakkon weap in a 2k chest

((99.9^8)/(100^8)x100)^87 =

49,840203314462100%

to not drop a hakkon weap in 87 chests so 1-49,84... =

50,159796685537900%

to drop one !

 

[Silversmurf]

You might never get one.

 

You might get one on your first try.

 

There is no calculation other than what you have already stated.

 

I saved for update and have spent 910k on trying for these items.

 

At 2000g a chest is 455 chests x 8 = 3640 items.  I saw one Hakkon Sword in all of that.  I've seen lv27 Bow and lv27 sword in all of that.

 

RNG is RNG.  

 

Good luck.

 

EDIT: I am starting to think a few sneaky extra tiers have been added above 10000 items.  The Bandit has been very quiet on this.

[o_sania]

Right now i close to think that every 250K gold spend you have a high chance to recieve Hakkon or Lvl 27 weapon (same drop rate as Hakkon). I know there is a math of probability- just want to see calculation.

I also spend 750k and got 2 lvl 27 weapons and a belt-  but i wаnt second Hakkon dagger) 

[Silversmurf]

but i wаnt second Hakkon dagger) 

 

Better hope you are on PC then.

 

Friend has two on Playstation 4 and it doesn't let him offhand.

[o_sania]

Better hope you are on PC then.

 

Friend has two on Playstation 4 and it doesn't let him offhand.

PC MASTER RACE))))) I know about Ps 4 problem. 2 my friends already had second dagger - everything ok on PC. 

[xsvTOYZ]

I have 55 nm dragon runs      1 hakkon  I have spent 500k on chests  no hakkon  

I have stopped caring      and that leads to stop caring about this game  

 

really should have a point where you just get one

[o_sania]

I have 55 nm dragon runs      1 hakkon  I have spent 500k on chests  no hakkon  

I have stopped caring      and that leads to stop caring about this game  

 

really should have a point where you just get one

 

First you must be at top loot tier its 10000 item - 1250 chest - 2500000 gold 

After 27lvl weapon same drop rate as Hakkon (so if you recieved one of that its like you recieve Hakkon weapon so you wasted your 1% chance)

[xsvTOYZ]

I have passed that a long time ago

wasted?   how can you waste what never existed?

[o_sania]

I have passed that a long time ago

wasted?   how can you waste what never existed?

It just as i try to find. There is a probablity 1% that next item you open will be Hakkon and probability 99% that it wont be and this inside 10% of higher loot. What important its the number of tries you need to get Hakkon to drop, if i know number (near) of tries it will be easy to spend money because you know than you have high chance for item. it wont be 100% but like 50% may be to get what you want.

[xsvTOYZ]

ok you have posted   

as I noted above  math doesnt matter

 

I have 55 nm dragon runs      1 hakkon  I have spent 500k on chests  no hakkon  

I have stopped caring      and that leads to stop caring about this game  

 

really should have a point where you just get one

[Silversmurf]

Infinite number of tries since the % chance does not accumulate.

 

There is more chance you will never see one.

[Ghanima]

% drop rate in chest will always be bad as a loot system, nothing new here. Lets just hope that they won't make the mistake to keep that loot system in the next mass effect mutliplayer. There should always be a way to buy the same item at an insane amount of cash, allow a player to get only newer item once they have it once(or 10 times like in ME3). Got 2 heal on kill ring before a friend of mine who play 4 times more than me, but we played almost the same amount of nightmare game and he got all hakkons weapons and I only got 3. It's random, it's not fun, but it' the way it's designed, they will lose a % of players because of that but reworking a system at this stage would be a waste of money.

Random loot system are made for the hype/fun/expectation when you open a chest, when you open 100k chest in a row and you simply don't care anymore about the hype/fun/expectation...

[Silversmurf]

There should always be a way to buy the same item at an insane amount of cash

 

I hope you mean in-game currency.

 

Having grown up through the 80's playing games, seeing the ones now that have real money purchases just f*ck me right off.

[TheThirdRace]

Random loot system are made for the hype/fun/expectation when you open a chest, when you open 100k chest in a row and you simply don't care anymore about the hype/fun/expectation...

But that's the problem. Hype/fun/expectation should come from playing with the item, not opening a chest...

Even if you gave me access to every single item in this game, I would still have played it over 1000 hours and tried all the builds I could come up with. RNG has nothing to do with fun, in fact, it's the opposite...

[o_sania]

I have 55 nm dragon runs 1 hakkon I have spent 500k on chests no hakkon
I have stopped caring and that leads to stop caring about this game

really should have a point where you just get one

You misunderstand a little. Hakkon drop from NM dragon different from chest. From dragon first Hakkon weapon have a chance 14%, second 7%, 4, 2, 1. I recive first 2 weapon in 10 NM game then 105 game i dont have any and later i get last 3 hakkon weapon one after another.

[Carbon_Bishop]

I think just removing unique items from the loot table once you have them is a completely reasonable fix,  Even with the current drop rates.

[HelenCarnate]

So .1% chance to drop (assuming highest loot tier).  Meaning on average over time 1 will drop every 1000 items.  With 8 items per chest that is 125 chests times 2000 gold each is 25k gold.  Again that is average for the entire player base and only for the top loot tier.  For that you need to have looted 10000 items.  Ill give a conservative 3 items per 2000 gold earned through chests on maps.  Plus the 8 from the chest means 2k = 11 items. With 11 items per chest including map drops means 909.09 chests opened times 2000 gold gives you around 1.8 million gold earned with the current chest system in place.  Some people go and grab all the chests and for those people it will be less gold, for those that skip chests, they will need more.

 

Yes the best chests used to have 5 items not 8 and were 1200 not 2000.  1200/5=240  2000/8=250, not much difference per item.

[xsvTOYZ]

You misunderstand a little. Hakkon drop from NM dragon different from chest. From dragon first Hakkon weapon have a chance 14%, second 7%, 4, 2, 1. I recive first 2 weapon in 10 NM game then 105 game i dont have any and later i get last 3 hakkon weapon one after another.

I do understand I am being robbed

after 55 nm dragons and too damn much gold 

I got people in my crew who have not done 1/4 of what I have and have all the hakkons  2 daggers as well

I am tired of it  

the math aside its a bit ridiculous that I have earned these front back and sideways

I dont know any other language to explain it   

I can swear if that helps comprehension

[Mitsuryu]

Let's see ...

(10*1)/(100*100) = 0.1%

Which means that if you drop an item, they're 99.9% chance it isn't a Hakkon weap

We are supposed to search here for which value our odds will be at least 50%

But the numbers are too large for my calculator

 

(99.9^150)/(100^150)x100 = 86.0643382683048%

 

At 150 items you have 100-86.0643382683048 = 13.935661731692% to get a Hakkon weap

 

EDIT :

EXCEL SO POWERFULL

=(99,9^8)/(100^8)

99,2027944069945%

to not drop a hakkon weap in a 2k chest

=((99,9^8)/(100^8))^87

49,840203314462100%

to not drop a hakkon weap in 87 chests so 1-49,84... =

50,159796685537900%

to drop one !

 

EDITED AGAIN SO THE FORMULA CAN BE COPY/PASTE INTO EXCEL

P.S. : DON'T FORGET TO SWITCH CELL INTO %

Modifié par Mitsuryu, 16 septembre 2015 - 12:33 .

[o_sania]

Thanks that exactly what i search. Finally some math. This (10*1)/(100*100) = 0.1% I hope for 0.5% but 0.1% kills me.
So its like every 87 chest (174k gold) you have 1 posiibility to drop (or not to drop) if not to drop then in 174 chest (350k gold) you have 2 possibility to drop or not. So when xsvTOYZ spend 500k and didnt get any means he just got unlucky 2 times and dont use his 3 attempt at full because he open less chests.

[Mitsuryu]

Well you have

((99.9^8)/(100^8))^174 =

24,8404586642692%

chance to open 174 chests without getting a single hakkon weapon

That's unlucky for sure, but not really quite impressive.

 

You can tell him to cry a river at

((99.9^8)/(100^8))^300 =

9,0609084494588%

 

Wait a second... 500k / 2k = 250 chests ...

Huh...

Prepare the handkerchief...

50 more to go...

[K_A_Rnage]

ok you have posted
as I noted above math doesnt matter

I have 55 nm dragon runs 1 hakkon I have spent 500k on chests no hakkon
I have stopped caring and that leads to stop caring about this game

really should have a point where you just get one

Stopped playing coz of this.
Grinding the same bloody map for weeks with no reward is a deal breaker for me.
Woulda dropped $20 to get Hakkon Bow but spent my money on old pc games instead.
HoMM VI anyone? lol

[Silversmurf]

Heroes of Might and Magic ? O.o

[Dekibra]

ok - math was never my strong suit ... but I'll tell you this:

 

I got the Hakkon Dagger

 

from a chest

 

after "only" a ~ 90k shopping spree

 

 

guess I got lucky...

 

and to answer the drop rate math question:

 

PURE RNG!

 

 

(still missing sulevin - not that it matters anymore ^^)

[MDK1281]

HoMM VI 3 anyone? lol