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[The Night Haunter]

Why would those two survive? Seeing as he barely survived life threatening injuries as is, without Shep's intervention Garrus certainly dies when his hideout is assaulted. Tali could have been killed by Veetor's mech on freedom's progress (though I doubt it because half her team probably wouldn't have went full retard), and definitely would be killed on Haestrom (this is what happens if you don't recruit her). You get the intel on both of their locations from Cerberus Dossiers.

More than likely such a thing would result in Shep getting stonewalled by the useless Council (either one) and sitting on his arse until the Reapers show up. Whether or not Cerberus succeeds or fails against the Collectors without him is anyone's guess, but it would leave you short a Normandy, list of useful contacts including ones with massive implications on the fates of entire species (Mordin, Tali, Legion), lots of bodies and up on Collectors and a fully completed Reaper.

That is, unless Shep orchestrates the violent overthrow of said useless Council and installs a government that actually has even a modicum of sense (i.e. no position of power for the complacent salarians, asari and turians). Or just becomes galactic dictator. I could have gone for that.

Well lets look at ME2 companion by companion:

Miranda/Jacob - Dead by Shepard

Garrus - Dead at the hideout without Sheps assist.

Grunt - Okeer would have failed to 'hatch' him in time without Shepard's interference 

Jack - Frozen

Legion - Very interesting, could be 'alive' and find Shepard at some other point. Open ended.

Mordin - Fine, but still on Omega

Samara - Chasing daughter

Tali - could be either alive or dead. Her squad may not have been so idiotic without humans there existing and offending them by doing so.

Thane - Dead after killing Nasani

Zaeed - Fine most likely

 

 

So what we end up with available going into ME3: Legion, Mordin (if someone thinks to go talk to him, he would have no connection to Shep in this scenario), Samara, Tali, Zaeed.

[Quarian Master Race]

Legion - Very interesting, could be 'alive' and find Shepard at some other point. Open ended.

Shep's trail goes cold at Alchera and then its mission is gaining information on the Heretic virus from the dead Reaper. It running into Shep there is a matter of chance, and without this it "dies" there with no one to take care of the husks and carry it to safety, though the platform might survive and be recovered by the geth then reloaded with new programs to make a "Not Legion" as it does if lost at the Collector Base. I suppose it could be rescued by Cerberus mooks on the Derelict if they are still on about stopping the Collectors, but then it'd likely be sent to Project Overlord or reprogrammed into an obedient Assassin (like what happens if you sell it to them.).
 

 

Mordin - Fine, but still on Omega

Cerberus might still go after recruiting him to make the defense against the swarms as well due to him being so crucial to the mission, but yeah, he could be alive if not. Or he could go after Maelon alone. Lots of possibilities there, not all of them dying.

Samara - Chasing daughter

Is detained by Anaya, tries to fight her way out after one day, and is killed by police. If you don't recruit her, she doesn't show up at the monastery in ME3.
 

Tali - could be either alive or dead. Her squad may not have been so idiotic without humans there existing and offending them by doing so.

It's likely she survives Freedom's Progress either way. Her getting taken out by a single mech when she's supposed to be an anti synthetic specialist would be out of character even without a functioning squad. However, we learn that she has already recieved orders to go on the mission to Haestrom at Freedom's Progress, and she isn't getting past that entire geth horde without Shep & Co's intervention (have never done a playthrough where she wasn't recruited in ME2 but I'd be interested to know what happens. I assume she dies and Xen takes her place in the Rannoch arc just like if she's lost at the CB).

The rest I agree with, except you somehow forgot Kasumi, who either keeps aimlessly thieving things or dies trying to do the Hock Heist alone.

[Larry-3]

I am only going to romance the girls. Unless I create my character as a girl. In which case... I am still going to romance girls.

Anyway, it would be nice if a girl made the first move.