70 réponses à ce sujet

[Jeremiah12LGeek]

U could just divide your total credit earned by the number of game played. Wait, maybe it s not a challenge...

 

Do you mean as far as determining my average credits per game?

 

I shamefully have to admit that the bulk of the first year that I played was mostly in bronze, which would skew the results quite badly. My Silver phase was shorter, maybe 3 or 4 months.

 

My best bet would probably be to start keeping track of average times from here forward. It wouldn't be too difficult, I already habitually record everything (and later delete it if nothing interesting happens) so I'm set up to take screenshots of the total time per game, which would also include the Wave reached, and total credits. After a lengthy enough period of time, I'd probably have enough to start making rough estimates. The data would obviously only apply to me, meaning it wouldn't have any practical value to BSN, but it's an interesting thought experiment.

[Fuenf789]

TL, DR
...
so I assume this means I should expect to buy 70 Spectre Packs to get my last 5 Ultra Rares?

0.o - 2 and a half hours of extra pugging towards the same goal can be saved.
The outcome is elemental my dear Watson, sometimes reading can save time, for us all :

• Just go to Page 15 (DL again).Most likely (18.2448%) you will get 5 UR in SP already at X.
• With AP's (Lookup Page 13) you'll likely (18.9725%) get it at Y.

Q: Which is better X or Y?

Que : The better option will likely save you either

• 1H:51m:53s of your life on plat (5 Plat Games) or
• 2H:33:47s- if you rather prefer to extract on gold (7 Gold Games).

Some prefer to minimize unnecessary effort. Whilst with others; it's simply better them not knowing - since it keeps them busy so that they don't act lke gnats. Heh Heh.

[Arkhne]

If anybody wants a random figure which should be fairly close, I would say 1,000hrs is probably a good mean time to max manifest.

 

This is based on 200-300hrs for maxing non-URs (This is what it took me, and I'm a good player who only played PUGs, so probably a good estimate for the "average" player). And 700-800hrs for URs (See above for quote of my paragraph of numbers I posted elsewhere, too lazy to copy and paste).

 

Sure, an AHF member or exclusive no-PUG BSNer can do it in 600-800. And there would be PUGs with 3000hrs and not be maxed.

 

Note: At time of writing this, I have 940hrs, and 98 URs left to go, so it WILL take me over 1000hrs, which is to be expected (Finally got my wife to try after I maxed my non-URs).

[Catastrophy]

 

Tangential: If I ever did max my manifest (I suppose if I keep playing another year or two at my current pace, it may happen) I would actually be kind of sad. I hate admitting that the carrot plays a role in my motivation, but if I'm being honest with myself, it does.

Well, there is no shame accepting the carrot when the way to it is fun. There are a couple of people who even reset their progress to get that experience fresh.

[Fuenf789]

If anybody wants a random figure which should be fairly close, I would say 1,000hrs is probably a good mean time to max manifest.
... I have 940hrs, ...
...and 98 URs left to go, so it WILL take me over 1000hrs, ...
...which is to be expected ...

Arkhne- you are a good guy, but from the above I can't figure out if this is
a) the worst case of dyscalculia i've seen,
b ) youthful optimism or
c) humoristic fatalism.
d) you blaming your wife again for wasting ur credits

I'm tipping on b ) .

Ask ArkFem to hit u / kiss u accordingly.

Btw has her peezee arrived by now?

[Arkhne]

I am suggesting that 1k hrs is likely what it should take for the average player.

 

And the reason why I wont do it in that time is because after maxing my non-URs, I got my wife to try the game, and she spent a lot of time playing bronze, so far less credits.

[Jeremiah12LGeek]

Arkhne- you are a good guy, but from the above I can't figure out if this is
a) the worst case of dyscalculia i've seen,
b ) youthful optimism or
c) humoristic fatalism.

 

I think he was saying two distinct things. He was offering a random guess of 1000 hours (a fairly common number proposed in the forums.)

 

He then said that he has 940 hours played on his account, and 98 Ultra Rares left to unlock. With sixty hours to go, he would have to unlock an UltraRare for every 36.6 minutes of gameplay (rounded down) for his guess to be correct. That isn't really possible, so he concluded that regardless of his guess, it will take him more than 1000 total hours to complete his manifest.

[Alfonsedode]

Do you mean as far as determining my average credits per game?

 

I shamefully have to admit that the bulk of the first year that I played was mostly in bronze, which would skew the results quite badly. My Silver phase was shorter, maybe 3 or 4 months.

 

My best bet would probably be to start keeping track of average times from here forward. It wouldn't be too difficult, I already habitually record everything (and later delete it if nothing interesting happens) so I'm set up to take screenshots of the total time per game, which would also include the Wave reached, and total credits. After a lengthy enough period of time, I'd probably have enough to start making rough estimates. The data would obviously only apply to me, meaning it wouldn't have any practical value to BSN, but it's an interesting thought experiment.

YEp, your right, i guess i played a lot more, so my shamefull silver period doesnt mean so much anymore.

Anyway, total credits earned are not easily available, are they ?

I m keeping track of my number of games and time played per week and my time per game has pretty consistent when not soloing too much around 21'. Was around 19' in june 2013, but i shouldn t care either . 

 

On your side, why wld u bother ? U think u ll put more time in it if u can compute a expected value ? how far are you ?

[Fuenf789]

I am suggesting that 1k hrs is likely what it should take for the average player.

And the reason why I wont do it in that time is because after maxing my non-URs, I got my wife to try the game, and she spent a lot of time playing bronze, so far less credits.

D) again

u Can't say that we've not tried to mitigate that point b4... Heh heh. Hit him Tinen, hit him hard...

[Jeremiah12LGeek]

YEp, your right, i guess i played a lot more, so my shamefull silver period doesnt mean so much anymore.

Anyway, total credits earned are not easily available, are they ?

I m keeping track of my number of games and time played per week and my time per game has pretty consistent when not soloing too much around 21'. Was around 19' in june 2013, but i shouldn t care either . 

 

On your side, why wld u bother ? U think u ll put more time in it if u can compute a expected value ? how far are you ?

 

I probably won't bother doing it for real. It was more general musings.

 

My brain was hovering around the idea that it made more sense for me to look at it in terms of average games to complete a manifest rather than average time, but then my brain started complaining that I hadn't had enough coffee and I stopped thinking about it.

 

how far are you ?

 

I'm actually glad you asked, because I hadn't looked in a really long time.

 

On my main account, I have everything unlocked except 36 Ultra Rares. That's actually further than I thought I was (I've had some pretty good RNG luck over the last few months.) I actually think it's quite reasonably possible to expect I might max my manifest within the next year, if I continue to play once or twice a week.

[Alfonsedode]

btw imo a reasonably skilled player optimizing his/her game with game mechanics knowledge and his/her packs buying strategy should be able to max in 700/800 hrs.

[Jeremiah12LGeek]

btw imo a reasonably skilled player optimizing his/her game with game mechanics knowledge and his/her packs buying strategy should be able to max in 700/800 hrs.

 

That certainly fits with the anecdotes that I've heard.

 

I believe Clyde maxed his Xbox manifest in about 650 hours, and based on what I've seen playing with him, that isn't hard to believe at all. I think Grim finished his pretty quickly, too.

[Dalakaar]

btw imo a reasonably skilled player optimizing his/her game with game mechanics knowledge and his/her packs buying strategy should be able to max in 700/800 hrs.

I'd fall under that prediction. Maxed in 761 hours. Lots of plats, not a lot of golds/silvers. Mostly 99k packs in batches of 3-5 mil sprees. 0 Speed runs/cashsuit-run-ins.

[Mgamerz]

You guys are killing me. We know the drop rate already.

[Alfonsedode]

You guys are killing me. We know the drop rate already.

who do u talk about ?

[Mgamerz]

Most people in this thread

[Alfonsedode]

hum, nobody argued around the value... whether fuenf stuff is interesting or not might be subject of an unintersting debate though

[JRandall0308]

Math is hard. [/Barbie]

[Fuenf789]

Finally...Long delay at an airport - and a fresh set of updates (See OP for latest dropbox update), with a document even more hardened and helpful for both "UR weapon finalizing players" - as well as "newer - players".

including :

1) Overall probabilities predicted PACK drop rates now also for gear, mods, characters as well as for Rare and Uncommon weapons,
2) A table summarizing best value for money - if the highest Pack drop rate is not the only objective (p36).
3) an anomaly has been discovered which is described in the conclusion (p15) that might help players that still have to complete their rare and ur weapons manifest. (Which also goes some way to give a plausible explanation on the positive overshoot of averages for some sample sets).
4) a myth's busted/confirmed list, on what was believed/uncertain until now, and how the latest findings changed that.(p28)
5) some less known / discussed PACK drop-rates like respec card/ character experience - addendum G.
6) tables (p22-p27) summarizing per Pack slot & types probability details from me3bini.bin (and balance changes) using Tank Master decompiler. Many thx - Bless that Swede's soul.
7) + other interesting stuff like the UR character drop myth (and what raw data says in the end)

Happy weekend reading and constructive feedback/debate welcomed.

[Salarian Master Race]

Odds of fuenf789 and gothpunkboy89 approximately 73,234:1

[Fuenf789]

Link updated : dropbox report name. Seems Long document names with special characters are not parsed well. Should work now.

[Arktinen]

Ask ArkFem to hit u / kiss u accordingly.

Btw has her peezee arrived by now?

Done.

 

.. and um, I'm honestly a bit wary of buying a used PS3 from a completely unknown owner, from another country further away. I'd be very careful buying a used ps3 even here in Finland.

Perhaps a few too many variables that may potentially go wrong: don't know the previous owner; why is he selling it so cheaply; why selling it in Germany but his location in the USA; does it have a receipt from the shop to prove that a) it is that new (2 mths) and it isn't stolen; and lastly, will he actually post it over here for certain? I can't afford to lose over 100 € for nothing. So, very unfortunately, I didn't contact the seller, as there were too many doubts. Not that I have an inherent distrust of people, but I don't trust people...

 

D) again

u Can't say that we've not tried to mitigate that point b4... Heh heh. Hit him Tinen, hit him hard...

Hehe, true. I hugged him instead, though. And I don't mind taking the blame for the long hours of playing because hey, I'm one of those grils/wives who actually play ME3MP.

But working on my own account right now - and hogging the PS3 doing it more than I should.

[Fuenf789]

I understand.
Yep, that link that I sent u was an expat leaving the country going back to the US. Who knows what 2 expect... Things like that goes quite fast - i bet u could still have offered 75€ and got away with it...or sent via me, with a paypal to reverse if u r not happy...

Arkhne just said today in the other thread that he plays on silver with that alias. That's marriage - u share everyrhing - but somehow the toothbrush is just too personal...

[Marksmad is waving goodbye]

I'm one of those grils/wives who actually play ME3MP.

I heartily endorse this product and/or service.

[JRandall0308]

I heard that in the winter you're supposed to cover your grill to keep her it warm. Can anyone recommend a good grill cover? I want something soft so my grill remains smooth and supple.