Is there any reliable estimation on the prevalence of mages among Theodosian races capable of magical spellcasting ? Does it vary among the races ?
Is it 1 in 100 ? Or 1 in 1000 ? Or is it 1 in 50 for Elves, 1 in 100 for Humans and 1 in 150 for Qunari ?
Do we have any information or lore than can provide a reliable estimation ?
Or failing that, is there any information on how rare are mages across societies and races ?
There is not any concrete information that I know of, just as there isn't any specific information regarding the survival rate of the Joining for Grey Wardens.
We know that it is at least partly hereditary*, but the way Thedosian society has been run doesn't allow for a natural way to determine the ratio of mage:mundane births if the system were to go on uninhibited. The altus (upper class) in Tevinter breed in mage-ness, whereas the Circle system in southern Thedas was designed to breed out mage-ness -- mages are discouraged from having unions, Wynne informs that there are "ways to prevent" pregnancies, children that result are taken away (another disincentive), and so on.
So we can't really be sure because, until this point, society has hindered the selection process. Even post-DAI, I can see the ratio still being broken by the Circle (or College of Enchanters) system, even if it is a positive one, because you will have adult mages living and working together, mostly apart from society. In that case, you will have mages joining together, as adults do, and making more mages, just as they do in Tevinter.
There wouldn't be a completely accurate way of determining the natural ratio unless there was a society where mages and mundanes freely mixed together, then you could say that it was 1/100 births, or whatever it is.
* There may be some mutation factors as well. For example, achondroplasia (causes dwarfism) is hereditary, but can also result from genetic mutation.
Whilst a mage can occur theoretically in any family, as Dorian says about the Soporai (non-mages) in Tevinter, it does seem that some families had a greater propensity than others. Hence it being possible for Tevinter to breed mages by focussing on specific blood lines. Hawke's family had mage blood on both sides, even though Leandra wasn't a mage herself and her parents recognised the fact that Malcolm being a mage would bring more magic into the family line and thus increase the changes of producing a mage. Based on that family with one parent a mage, and the other possibly carrying a recessive gene, the chances of a mage child are 1 in 3 at worst and 2 out of 3 at best. Based on the non-identical twins the chances are 50/50.
Judging by the various noble families we meet in southern Thedas, the chances of producing a mage when there is not already evidence of mages in the family are rather slim. Since mage offspring would inevitably be packed off to the Circle and not able to inherit; there would be no pressure on them to breed. Mundane mages in the Circles would definitely be discouraged from doing so. We don't know what the actual populations of the various nations are in southern Thedas but even if you say a Circle had a population of 1000 mages (which I think is way over the actual number for individual Circles), this would still be a very small percentage of the overall population. Evidence would seem to be that Circles were not increasing or decreasing in the number of mages within them, so the mage population in southern Thedas was fairly constant. We were given the population of the alienage in Val Royeaux as 10,000 elves and the evidence is that within the Circles the number of elves was far less than the number humans. So if the alienage was producing elf mages the percentage probably wasn't greater than 1 in 100. Of course this is only children who make it as far as puberty, which is when magic manifests itself and infant mortality rate is likely to be high both in the alienages and the human slums, so potentially the ratio of mages to non-mages could be much closer but no one knows that because they do not live that long.
Even in Tevinter, where they breed for mages among the upper classes, I believe I am right in saying that there are still more non-mages in the country than there are mages, it is just that the mages hold the power. I was asking in the Tevinter thread what happens when an Altus family produces a non-mage: are they killed off as not required or still considered having potential to produce a mage? A lot of the Altus families that we have encountered seem to only have one child. Is this due to infertility among mages, choice of the parents or just coincidence? Normally in the south the nobles like to have at least and heir and a spare but we have not yet been told what the situation is in Tevinter. So if the Altus were popping them out rather than having only one child each, then the percentage of mages to non-mages among the Altus might still only be the same as in the Hawke family 2 out of 3. The Laetans would probably be the same if both parents were mages and 1 out of 3 if one of them was not. Of course, if it is based on recessive genes, then both parents would have to have the gene to be a mage and if both parents are mages, then the child would be guaranteed to have inherited the gene, so the generations of selective breeding in Tevinter have arrived at a situation where there is 100% chance of producing a mage, which might at least account for why they don't bother having more than one child, because they know it is going to be a mage and thus they feel no need for a spare. The Soporati would probably be much the same as the rest of Thedas, probably 1 in a 100 or at best 1 in 50.
Even in Tevinter, where they breed for mages among the upper classes, I believe I am right in saying that there are still more non-mages in the country than there are mages, it is just that the mages hold the power. I was asking in the Tevinter thread what happens when an Altus family produces a non-mage: are they killed off as not required or still considered having potential to produce a mage? A lot of the Altus families that we have encountered seem to only have one child. Is this due to infertility among mages, choice of the parents or just coincidence? Normally in the south the nobles like to have at least and heir and a spare but we have not yet been told what the situation is in Tevinter.
Let's hope it's coincidence.
Having only one child is only good if you have an overpopulation problem.I doubt the Altus would suffer that unless they bred like crazy at one point , they suffered a purge a Blight , an Exalted March , the Qunari , and oh they tend to murder each others when they're bored.
They are forced to marry with other Altus , and keep their bloodlines "pure" from other social classes , so there should also be pressure to pop out more than one kid , unless again overpopulation trouble or they are bad at math.
I must admit that seems to make more sense. Otherwise the Altus population would be in decline. Which is why I always wondered why Dorian/Alexius/Maevaris family didn't have more than one heir. Dorian's parents may have hated each other but if the sole reason for marrying is to produce more mages, then you would think they would do their duty and do so. After all there was no guarantee Dorian would be as talented as he is; look at Felix. Alexius married his childhood sweetheart, so you would think there would be more children there. Which is why I was wondering if there was a fertility problem (possibly as a result of the in-breeding that had to result from concentrating on a few bloodlines - I mean just how many ancient dreamers were there?)
Another slant on the whole mage thing is the case of the Dalish. Leaving aside the stupid new idea that they abandon surplus mages in the wilderness; previously if a clan had more than two mages, they gifted the spare to those clans who didn't have enough because the Keeper has to be a mage and very often they don't produce enough to even provide a First, let alone a Second. Most clans number between 50-60, so that should give some idea of the percentage of mages to non-mages even in a society that isn't prejudiced against them.
Hawke - 3 (and potentially 2 of them mages)
Tethras - 2
I could be wrong here but didn't that scholar from Markham in JoH say there were 5 children in his family?
By the looks of it there is something in the water in the Freemarches that improves fertility. After all Leandra grew up there, even if the two subsequent children to Hawke were conceived in Ferelden.
There's not really a hard number on any population figures in DA. Minrathous is the most populous city in Thedas, but we don't know how many people that is, or how other cities and nations compare. Anecdotally mages appear to be rare but not unheard of. Sera says most people have never met a mage or had anything to do with magic, but in the games you end up tripping over them at every turn.
Are trying to guess population estimates on a medieval setting without any measure of demographic sensus?
Case in point, the only in game reference we have is Vivienne's snark remark that the mage rebellion shot itself in the foot starting a war in which they are outnumbered 100 to one.
As for how breeding goes across Thedas, the biggest problem is that besides mage lineages coming from different nomadic tribes thousands of years old we now know that everyone with Elven blood has magic potential because all elves were mages before the Veil was created.
From since the fall of Arlathan, elves spent several centuries as slaves or servants which were often sexually abused by their masters and in turn produced countless illegitimate children who grew in anonimity and created completely unknown and untraced bloodlines with mage potential.
When Anders said that mages were a part of nature and that each year new ones would be born regardless of what templars did he was accidentaly speaking the truth, magic blood, regardless of race, runs through the veins of a large part of the human, elf and even kosith populations.
Qunari are an even bigger example of how selective breeding can't prevent mages from happening, they have sistematically controlled their breeding for ages but Saarebas are still common as other mages are in other species.
So, unyielding mage master race ?
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