I think your post is insightful, but I would disagree that the issues were not well-defined in DA2 - I think (limits to the development of DA2 aside) - we did have the two major conflicts of the game set up by the end of Act II and III in the way they would be set up in DA:O/DA:I. The difference was that there was no magic persuade button to prevent the tragedy from really taking place - the Meredith/Orisino showdown being the best example, as Hawke had no auto-win persuade option whereby Meredith would stand down and Orisono would act reasonably.
My failure in explanation. My argument wasn't that we didn't have clearly defined conflicts in DA2, we did, but rather that the approach of DA2 allowed more insight how those conflicts came to be and had Hawke be a part in that build-up for the events.
In Act 2, we had the Qunari invasion, but the game had also shown the increasing tension between the Qunari and Kirkwall fueled by fanatical believers. In DAO/DAI, the PC would have just waltzed in to the conquered city and killed everything insight to liberate it.
In Act 3, even with it being as rushed as it was, the game had consistenly built the Templars as the power in Kirkwall and their harsh treatment of mages, but also shown the constant misuses of magic in Kirkwall. In addition to those, we had witnessed the internal struggle of the man who would be responsible for the greatest terrorist act in Thedas history and been allowed to see why he thought what was to happen had to happen. In DAO, we had the Circle Tower, where just some random power hungry dude gave in to demons, nervous templars wanted to wipe it out and every villain was pretty much a demon. DAI, pretty much the same.
DA2 is not a perfect game, no matter how much I love it, but it did a lot more to flesh out those conflicts and thus making them less black-and-white for me than DAO/DAI did. However, that required it be a game about why something happened, which in turn requires that thing to happen. The problem was that when looking at DAO and DAI, they do resolve things more, but that is because the things has already happened and been reduced to some journal notes.
And, by the way, I cannot defend the Orsino decision in anyway, that was just horrific narrative design, especially since it was essentially a last minute decision to just add a boss fight there. It did hurt the story a lot, as Orsino had been bult as the anti-Anders, the mage who also fought for his people, but who had not been broken by that fight.