It's not that ME3 doesn't set itself up, it's that the set-up is a non-sequitur. When we leave ME2, Shepard has a fully autonomous ship run by an AI (potentially fully crewed), with (potentially) Spectre status. And is located somewhere in the Attican Traverse, and certainly at the limits of Council space and outside Alliance jurisdiction. I have no explanation for how Shepard was in detention, which is a substantial turnabout, or how Shepard built this relationship with Vega. The answer is apparently Arrival: Shepard turns himself in. But that doesn't really make sense to me at all.
I don't have an issue for how Vega ended up on the Normandy, I just think the plot of ME3 does not at all explain to me how we get from ME2 to ME3. As stupid and hokey as ME2's introduction is with the Collectors, it at least follows logically from ME1: the Normandy is hunting geth, and the Normandy gets attacked. That part I can at least follow.
I just found it hard to follow, and not in the usual way Cole's narration is tough to follow.
I agree that it's not set up well in ME2 without having bought the Arrival DLC... but there are still a few clues to indicate that at least some Shepards might be inclined to return to the Alliance after taking out the Collector base. One being the fact that Shepard is scene looking intently at Reaper diagrams after the SM... clearly indicating that he/she is not going to be the sort of individual who just "goes pirate" and disappear. Some of it would depend on how much he/she breaks away from TIM, but clearly some Shepard's do make a "clean" break from Cerberus... making it illogical that he/she would return the ship to TIM. If LOTSB is played, then Shepard can express some regrets about being "tapped for the Spectres, then Cerberus" rather than being allowed to stay an Alliance soldier. That Shepard would have to undergo a hearing in order to return to the Alliance even without Arrival is basically inevitable given he/she operated within a "terrorist" organization (enemy of the Alliance) for an extended period of time and shows up in a private ship secretly copied from the "most advanced ship in the Alliance" run by an AI to boot. I think it all does follow rather logically from ME2 to ME3. (i.e. I don't think it's all that "non-sequiter.")





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