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Gay Math


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#1
biddypocket

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So, I started this thread to simply examine the argument that it was cost effective to leave out male/male romances from Mass Effect 2 because gay gamers make up such a small part of the population.

First things first - how many gay gamers are there? Let's stick to the USA for argument's sake.

Well, a recent US census puts the total population of exclusively homosexual individuals at somewhere around 1.5% of the population. However, they caution readers that this number may be an extreme estimate due to the fact that many people are not out of the closet, or may simply lie on the census. So, let's say 2%. Then, figure there's at least another 2% of individuals that identify as bisexual, pansexual, etc., and about .2-.5 of the population that identify as intersexed, transgendered, and the list goes on, etc.

So that leaves us with about 4.5% of the population, roughly. That's a fair estimate of EVERYONE who identifies as LGBTetc. in the US. Then, take into account that many more younger people are coming out nowadays than the older generation, and as we know, young people are often missed or misrepresented in a census. So, let's say for argument's sake, another .5% are actually misrepresented and could fall into the LGBT category.

Finally, we have all of those individuals who swear by the red, white, and blue that they're heterosexual, but may have dabbled in same-sex relations once or twice (or ten times, who knows). Let's say that makes up 1% of the population as well (though, I would argue it is probably much higher).


So that leaves us with an estimate of about 6% of total people who would possibly prefer a relationship other than heterosexual. Now, considering that statistically, this representation should stay true to any large sample of the population (we could actually do the T-tests and other analyses to figure it out, but I don't feel like it :)), it is likely that these same numbers would exist in the total gamer popualtion in the US. I would actually argue that the numbers are even slightly higher, given that most gamers are younger individuals from 15-30ish, and many more LGBT individuals are out younger these days than in the past.

however, we also have that very small number of heterosexual individuals who simply may want to role play, for one reason or another, as a character of the opposite sex (this makes sense, think about it - a female is tired of playing as a femshep, and switches to maleshep. Maybe she would prefer to see two men get it on than a man and woman? I definitely know women and other gamers who would agree).Let's make that about 2% of the total gamer population. 

So, that leaves us with a grand total estimate of about 8% of gamers who would prefer, if given the choice, to at some point, pursue a relationship ingame other than heterosexual. I think that's a fairly modest estimate, and I personally don't believe I'm over or underestimating it by too much. You may disagree.

NOW, let's do some math!

Let's take the $2 million sold in the first week in the US just as an example.

$2,000,000 / $56.00 (fair market value cost of the game, no?) = 35,714 (rounded down)

35,714 purchases.

8% of 35,714 = 2,857 gamers who may possibly choose a non-heterosexual romance ingame.

2,857 x 56 = $160,000 in sales.

(or, simply 8% of $2million = $160,000)

Now, in comparison to $2 million, that doesn't sound like very much, but it is rather significant. Now, let's look at this projection over, say, $10 million in sales.

$10,000,000 / $56.00 = 178,571

8% of 178,571 = 14,286

14,286 x 56 = $800,000. Cha-ching!

(or, simply 8% of $10million = $800,000)



Now, I would continue this on and on if a) I knew the TOTAL amount in sales from, say, ME1 (does anyone know? off chance?) and B) how much it costs to impliment 2 gay romances subplots (one for male, one for female), but alas I do not. So, although this may seem sloppy and consist of many estimates, it's the best we can do. Although some people may think $800,000 is negligible in sales, I think that it could pay quite a number of salaries, purchase some nice equipment, etc.

For the purposes of this topic, if you're going to write "here we go again..." you might as well just not comment at all. This is looking at the projected sales of ME2, which most certainly would fit in general discussion, and NOT about whether or not such content should be included in the game. There are various other threads for that. Thank you!

EDIT: I would actually like it if a few people had their own interpretations of this idea - it would provide for a healthy debate, one I think we should have considering the number of people who use this as a defense.

Modifié par biddypocket, 30 janvier 2010 - 03:06 .


#2
Hilmer

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Of course, gay gamers who plan to buy Mass Effect 2 will still do that despite the absence of a same-sex relationship.. so the loss in income is going to be negligible. Please tell me if I'm wrong in my assumption :P.

#3
Varenus Luckmann

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You're not accounting for two things. The number of gamers that are gay that would play the game regardless of wheter it has same-sex romances or not (the overwhelmingly vast majority, I'd say) and those that would feel less interested in the game, due to same-sex romances.

#4
mohdhm

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ok. here is somehting to account for.



Romances are a bonus, not a reason why 99.9% of the people play mass effect.



Remove romance in the 3rd and i doubt anyone would care.

#5
Sphaerus

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This thread is pretty gay.



SORRY.

#6
YakoHako

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mohdhm wrote...

ok. here is somehting to account for.

Romances are a bonus, not a reason why 99.9% of the people play mass effect.

Remove romance in the 3rd and i doubt anyone would care.


Well I'm sure you'd hear people complaining that they "censored their own product" since they're already claiming that.  Also, it would be a pretty bad move to take that out.  Having relationships continue onto the last game would be a great and obvious move.

#7
newcomplex

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Sorry, your meager projections are laughable. 160,000$. Seriously? Nobodies losing sleep over that.

Plus, you fail to account for potential lost sales lost due to controversy over the product (fauxnews).

Then, theirs the fact that, Gay people clearly buy the game anyway. Considering how our gay<3 thread is in fact, the biggest and longest lasting thread on the forums.

Then theirs the fact that you don't make 56$ off each sale, and how your 8% are not nessicarily accurate among the gamer demographic.

If anything, figuring out these numbers should have convinced you how utterly futile this thread is, or how catering to homosexuals is completely illogical from a purely profit perspective.     

Modifié par newcomplex, 15 février 2010 - 07:32 .


#8
diskoh

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Varenus Luckmann wrote...
and those that would feel less interested in the game, due to same-sex romances.


This was proven a statistcally insignificant number by DA:O.

#9
diskoh

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newcomplex wrote...

Plus, you fail to account for potential lost sales lost due to controversy over the product (fauxnews).


Contraversy = lost sales? Illogical. Contraversy = massive sales boost.

#10
newcomplex

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diskoh wrote...

newcomplex wrote...

Plus, you fail to account for potential lost sales lost due to controversy over the product (fauxnews).


Contraversy = lost sales? Illogical. Contraversy = massive sales boost.


lol.

Their have been extensive market studies done on that and it isn't always true.   

Somehow, I doubt Foxnews talking about a game that lets you have gay sex with an alien is going to garner increased sales from the gamer demographic.    

Modifié par newcomplex, 15 février 2010 - 07:34 .


#11
vhatever

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diskoh wrote...

Varenus Luckmann wrote...
and those that would feel less interested in the game, due to same-sex romances.


This was proven a statistcally insignificant number by DA:O.



How was this "proven"? Just syaing so doesn't qualify.

The reality is, 90%-95% of gay gamers care far more about the game than any of the bells and whistles, and would buy the game regardless. Whatever amount they would gain by including more gaycentric stuff would be more than made up by people who do not want gaymance in their video games and would not buy it if included.

#12
Sialboats

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Posted Image

What part of "minority" don't these people understand? Apparently the part that they tore off and assigned to "desperation".

#13
Blind Lark

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Ugh, romance is a sub plot device that doesn't impact the game greatly, the time developing extra scenarios I believe is just not worth the effort...I don't even wanna think about inter species gay sex so I'd prefer the whole thing be left where it is...

There might be people who are deterred from gay relationships in mass effect 2....controversey doesn't boost sales, it just draws attention.  There's enough controversy to the sex scenes, there's no need to add gay sex scenes and make it more awkward.

Modifié par Blind Lark, 15 février 2010 - 07:36 .


#14
Blind Lark

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Whoops pressed submit twice...

Modifié par Blind Lark, 15 février 2010 - 07:35 .


#15
newcomplex

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vhatever wrote...

diskoh wrote...

Varenus Luckmann wrote...
and those that would feel less interested in the game, due to same-sex romances.


This was proven a statistcally insignificant number by DA:O.



How was this "proven"? Just syaing so doesn't qualify.

The reality is, 90%-95% of gay gamers care far more about the game than any of the bells and whistles, and would buy the game regardless. Whatever amount they would gain by including more gaycentric stuff would be more than made up by people who do not want gaymance in their video games and would not buy it if included.


I said so cuz its true.     The meager profit margins in this thread prove your point is completely false.    Your gaining 160,000$ IF no gay gamers would buy your game, and IF your making 56$ off each sale (when on average your making half that).    

Going by purely immediate profit, your looking at literally a couple hundred customers.      The profit gained would barely offset the the cost to record the voices, to localize, etc etc.  

The only actual gain you'd get is investment of loyalty towards your gay gamer fanbase (and your straight gay supporters I guess).     Which is highly unpridicatable.    It could result in a long term gain of ~50-100 k.   Even then, its rather insignificant.    

Modifié par newcomplex, 15 février 2010 - 07:38 .


#16
Ryzaki

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Okay. It wouldn't be a significant increase or decrease either way. So Yeah.

Posted Image

The amount of people refusing to buy it if non MM or the amount that wouldn't buy it because of MM are both extremely small minorities that really don't matter in the greater scheme of things.

BOTH sides are minorities before anyone jumps down my throat. >_>

The inclusion or exclusion of MM content in Mass Effect is solely the decision of its developers and publishers and would have no great effect on the profitability of their product.

Including MM isn't going to lead to a huge amount of sales lost and excluding MM isn't going to lead to a huge amount of sales gained. =]

Modifié par Ryzaki, 15 février 2010 - 07:43 .


#17
Hilmer

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I believe Bioware should stick with the current slate of romancable characters instead of introducing even more in ME2 DLC or Mass Effect 3, or risk losing the forest for the trees. Having a same-sex romance in just one game in the trilogy wouldn't be worthwile for those interested, barring a major increase in character interaction.

#18
YakoHako

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I agree with Ryzaki. I think most people don't care too much one way or the other and would rather just have a great experience with the game either way.



PS: The only reason I'm going to buy DA:O today is for the hot gay elf sex.

PSS: Oh yeah, and the combat and storyline and character interaction and everything else :D

#19
Wittand25

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Hilmer wrote...

I believe Bioware should stick with the current slate of romancable characters instead of introducing even more in ME2 DLC or Mass Effect 3, or risk losing the forest for the trees. Having a same-sex romance in just one game in the trilogy wouldn't be worthwile for those interested, barring a major increase in character interaction.


They need to introduce new LI for those that did not play ME1 and ME2 or stayed single in those two games anyway, and the fight for the love group proves that a lot of people will find it worthwile if it is in the third game.

#20
Sphaerus

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If there not being the opportunity to gay out is so bad that it ruins the play experience for you, you really need to work on your priorities when playing a game. Seriously, the level of indignation and butthurt over this is incredible.

#21
Nemesis7884

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stop that gay discussion, shepard is simply not a gay character period, who the hell care??? youre romancing with freakin aliens with 3 toes and finger isn't that enough??

#22
Hilmer

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Wittand25 wrote...

Hilmer wrote...

I believe Bioware should stick with the current slate of romancable characters instead of introducing even more in ME2 DLC or Mass Effect 3, or risk losing the forest for the trees. Having a same-sex romance in just one game in the trilogy wouldn't be worthwile for those interested, barring a major increase in character interaction.


They need to introduce new LI for those that did not play ME1 and ME2 or stayed single in those two games anyway, and the fight for the love group proves that a lot of people will find it worthwile if it is in the third game.


First of all, I can't imagine who would want to play ME3 without having played 1 & 2. That's like reading Return of the King without bothering with what came before. And of course I'm sympathetic to same-sex romances (Hilmer Shepard's boyfriend is back on Earth while he's out saving the galaxy and all), but I'm not convinced it can be done in a satisfactory way this late in the current trilogy. The current romances aren't developed enough for my tastes, so I'd like to see those continued rather than adding a new underdeveloped one.

#23
Wittand25

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Hilmer wrote...

Wittand25 wrote...

Hilmer wrote...

I believe Bioware should stick with the current slate of romancable characters instead of introducing even more in ME2 DLC or Mass Effect 3, or risk losing the forest for the trees. Having a same-sex romance in just one game in the trilogy wouldn't be worthwile for those interested, barring a major increase in character interaction.


They need to introduce new LI for those that did not play ME1 and ME2 or stayed single in those two games anyway, and the fight for the love group proves that a lot of people will find it worthwile if it is in the third game.


First of all, I can't imagine who would want to play ME3 without having played 1 & 2. That's like reading Return of the King without bothering with what came before. And of course I'm sympathetic to same-sex romances (Hilmer Shepard's boyfriend is back on Earth while he's out saving the galaxy and all), but I'm not convinced it can be done in a satisfactory way this late in the current trilogy. The current romances aren't developed enough for my tastes, so I'd like to see those continued rather than adding a new underdeveloped one.


Leaves the singels, and even some of the  players who played through the other two games and romanced someone will want a new option. So I am pretty sure that ME3 will contain atleast one new character of each sex who is available for romance and those could easily be made available for both Shepards.

#24
RiverRat

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newcomplex wrote...
Then, theirs the fact that, Gay people clearly buy the game anyway. Considering how our gay<3 thread is in fact, the biggest and longest lasting thread on the forums.


The biggest and longest lasting thead on the forum is gay? Good to know.


:devil:

#25
JamesMoriarty123

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Guys, this thread is going to get locked. Woo just locked the other thread. The discussion is dead. STFU for God's sake. Get over it and wait to see what Bioware have to say.