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[MICHELLE7]

 After Horizon if you go to Captain Anderson and ask about Kaidan/Ash on Horizon you find out that the real reason that they were there was that they were investigating whether or not Cerberus was behind the human dissappearances. 
Why would they go to that particular planet to investigate Cerberus unless they knew the tip they got was from Cerberus? In other words TIM didn't pull the wool over their eyes as well as he would have liked. Thankfully the Alliance hasn't lost it's touch.
The colonists keep going on about how Kaidan/Ash are there for some other reason and they are right. Putting up the defense towers is secondary to and a cover for the true reason.
TIM also refers to Kaidan/Ash's status as being Alliance and highly classified. My theory is that Kaidan/Ash may be heading up some task force that is targeting TIM and Cerberus. Both the Shadowbroker and TIM are into information. I think a parallel may be running with Liara going after the Shadowbroker and Kaidan/Ash going after TIM.
I also don't buy all the Alliance recruitment down being filtered through the news. Those news broadcasts are always lies anyway. I would think after the human race came to the forfront by saving the council or becoming the council by the hands of Shepard and the alliance that would only add to people wanting to join...even if the only reason was so they could proudly declare they were a part of the Alliance. 
TIM also says that the Alliance is stretched too thin...I'm wondering if they've not gone somewhat underground...maybe building ships somewhere. They may even be feeding the press some of the lies about their numbers being down so the galaxy won't see them as such a threat and they can work in secret. I would think they would need a huge Alliance fleet to go after the reapers and even though the council seems to be stonewalling(saying there are no reapers) I think that the Alliance brass may see things differently and be preparing for the showdown to come in secret.

These are just a few thoughts I had after my first play through. 

[vashts1985]

i think you misunderstood why they were there. the whole reason the illusive man leaked the information to the alliance was so that they would go to Horizon. the alliance didnt pull one over on the illusive man at all, its exactly what he wanted. Kaiden/Ashley play right into his plan, just like everyone else.

[Jonny_Evil]

The Collectors were targeting Shepard's old allies, by manipulating Kaidan/Ash into going to a poorly defended Terminus colony he was baiting a trap for the Collectors. It was pretty much the only way he could get Shepard on the ground during a Collector attack.

[MICHELLE7]

vashts1985 wrote...

i think you misunderstood why they were there. the whole reason the illusive man leaked the information to the alliance was so that they would go to Horizon. the alliance didnt pull one over on the illusive man at all, its exactly what he wanted. Kaiden/Ashley play right into his plan, just like everyone else.

According the Anderson, Kaidan/Ash were secretly there investigating Cerebus...the defense of the colony was secondary. You have to talk to Anderson after the Horizon encounter to get that information. 

There would be no connection between Cerberus and Horizon in Anderson's eyes unless he knew the original tip came from Cerberus itself. He would have simply sent Kaidan/Ash to defend the colony without any secret agenda. And again if you don't go back and ask Anderson about Horizon after the Horizon mission you don't get any of this information(even though it is hinted at by the colonists and the email sent to you afterwards).

[Jonny_Evil]

Yes, TIM knew that the Alliance suspected Cerberus was behind the abductions and leaked info suggesting that Horizon would be one of their targets, luring Kaidan there to lure the Collectors. There is no super cunning secret Alliance plot.