I think the plan for the beacon was to have an excuse. Loghain need to be able to explain why he charged so late, or never. So he always planned that the beacon wouldn't be lit. The hole in the floor would maybe in turn be his explanation why the beacon was never lit.
I'm inclined to believe this, partly because that was my initial impression of Loghain, already at the war council. But also because I interpreted it as if his men had already abandoned the tower, when my PC arrived. All this first impressions and first conclusions doubtless affects my objectivity.
But there are other reasons; Loghain's battle plan is simple and cliché, but sound enough. But for it to work, he and his forces need to be hidden. And if he is hidden, then he can't see. I thought all of this was selfevident, and in itself an explanation for the need of a beacon.
But rather late, the developers decided to divulge
new "information" in the forum. Loghain suddenly supposedly
can see part of the battlefield. This detail is troublesome. It may at first seem convenient, if one wants to (belately) change the situation at Ostagar, from having been a clear betrayal, to instead suggest that maybe the battle couldn't be won anyway.
But such change does not come easy: Why does Loghain wait until the beacon lights, and
then leaves? One very immediate, tempting, rational explanation is that he didn't want to charge, and was surprised and disappointed at the sudden signal. His excuse is now blown and there is no longer any possibility of pretending to wait for a signal. And he can't just passively stand there. Doing so would just reinforce the obvious impression of betrayal.
Now also try this: If he could see part of the battlefield, then the king would
also have been able to see the battlefield, if he had stood with Loghain, as so many contends was Loghain's plan. And if he had done so, then surely he wouldn't have accepted just standing there, watching the grey Wardens be slaughtered?
So what is it to be?
1: He left because he thinks the battle can't be won: (He alone is in that case personally responsible for that. He has made sure Arl Eamon's forces and the Orlesian reinforcements aren't there.) He stands with his forces in view of the darkspawn. What kind of ambush or tactical surprise is that? Why does he wait? Why does he leave at the moment the beacon lights up? If he was so overwhelmed, why does he afterwards persist in instigating a civil war and believe that it "isn't a real Blight"?
2: He left because he planned to have the Grey Wardens massacred, but not to kill the king: What was he planning to tell the king, then? If the king had been standing with him? And the king can now also see the battle. He's still the king, you know, and can remove Loghain from command immediately.
3: He intends to have both the King and the Wardens killed. Fine, except he can still see part of the battle, so then his second in command and his soldiers can too. This is trouble, but it still holds up. He intends to use the lack of signal as an excuse to be too late, and it'll probably work. ...He and his forces can also be seen by the darkspawn. But maybe the darkspawn can't see them until they're too deep into the valley and too committed. Maybe the darkspawn doesn't care to employ scouts.
In any case, it's only reasonable to think that he in any case always intended to charge, if he felt certain the battle could still be won, despite him being late. I mean, really, why wouldn't he?
So the problem remains that he leaves when the beacon lights up! The highly visible suggestion, - is that the beacon is too early. Not too early for the battle plan, ofc. (a guess on that is rather that it might be somewhat late, but we don't know that). But too early to have all the Wardens and the king killed.
So IMO, the fact that he's now supposed to have been able to see part of the battlefield, doesn't change anything. Rather, it reinforces the case for the battle to have been winnable.
The explanation that seem to have the least problems, is that Howe didn't
exactly "act alone". He was aware that he, for certain reasons, would get away with it. That Loghain always intended to have both the king and Wardens betrayed and killed. That he intended the beacon to never be lit. That his suggestions that the king should not be with the Wardens, are never sincere and not as strong as they should have been. But I don't doubt other explanations are possible.
Was the battle winnable? There's really no reason to think that it wasn't, because Loghain
leaves when the signal comes! He does not leave before. That suggests he still intends to charge and win, when it's too late to save the Wardens. And he also doesn't stay even one minute longer to observe and evaluate a battle he supposedly couldn't win? Why does the signal change his world? Isn't the most reasonable explanation that the battle really was winnable? But the signal too early for the darkspawn to have finished with Loghain's intentions?
That, is why he is forced to leave? He can't first dally and delay, and then, later, charge and win. That would truly expose his murderous treachery.
Despite a lot of forum claims, RtO provides no proof. It's just hearsay and opinion from chars who never were in position to know. Alistair and the PC, otoh, were in the tower, with great overview, and implicitly thinks the battle was winnable.
Duncan and the Grey Wardens know that they are indispensible for defeating the Blight. And they can sense the darkspawn. If the battle was truly lost, even without Loghain's betrayal, would they not have sensed it enough to consider it a risk? And if they considered it a risk, why didn't they refuse the plan and the battle? Since they would know the consequence would be that the Blight could not be ended?
Duncan just meekly says that he can't go against his king. - Now, If he truly considered a defeat a real possibility, he'd rather assassinate both Cailan and Loghain and whoever it takes, rather than risk having the Warden's exterminated!
But Alistair and the PC in the tower, you say? Nope! Doesn't work. If the battle is lost, they have no chance of escape. They're as dead as all the rest. Only Flemeth's intervention saved them.

I don't doubt that it's very, very difficult to write a game story like this, which is intentionally so ambigiuos. I'm convinced it's impossible to do so without leaving some logical holes. I also think such logical holes often actually are "realistic", in a way. If you look at reality, you often see that it, too, leaves a lot of "plot holes". There's simply too much we don't know in detail. We make false assumptions. We depend on information that is false in details. Reality can be stranger than we can visualize. "Human factor". Etc. Even reality is maybe not always as "rational" as we think a game story should be.
Personally, I think there's a kind of role-play comfort in not knowing everything. Your PC has to make up it's mind, some way or other, without certainty. There's no God-like absolute knowledge.
But even so, I still think it's worthwhile to mull the details.
Modifié par Solica, 02 février 2010 - 10:14 .