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[AndreaDraco]

Actually, I don't know the truth just yet, but I hope this thread will help us to figure out some pretty obscure points and intricacies, because what happened before and during the Battle of Ostagar is perhaps the biggest mystery of the entire game, and Fereldan politics is undoubtedly a nightmare. Anyway, I decided to open up a new thread because I don't want to focus on Return to Ostagar in particular, but on the whole Ostagar affair as portrayed both in the DLC and in Origins. First of all, I will try to summarize at the best of my abilities what we know for sure about the time period before the battle.

When darkspawn started to rear its head in the south, the Korkari Wilds were the first region to be attacked, at first by stray groups of few darkspawn. However, as the attacks increased both in frequency and scope, the Fereldan Gray Warden sensed that a true Blight was coming and King Cailan decided to march south to battle the bulk of the horde - first spotted by watchguards and explorers - before it could invade the lowlands. Fearing that the horde could be too much for Ferelden's forces alone, Cailan made contact with Empress Celene of Orlais, in order to secure the alliance between the two nations in case of a real Blight.

Fearing that this alliance could be turned in a renewed political domination, Loghain began preparations for a coup d'état. He didn't intended to murder the King, but only to sever his political relations - especially Arl Eamon - in order to weaken the King's support. As such, he also planned to weaken the whole Royalist faction by delaying Teyrn Cousland's troops (and maybe also spying on him), although Arl Howe probably got carried away and - for personal gain - decided to murder the Cousland in order to take possession of their title and domain. Loghain also came to a pace with Uldred, trying to gain the favor of the Circle of Magi, knowing perhaps that mages were better as allies than enemies, and - to carry out his plans - he certainly needed all the help he could get.

At Ostagar, when Cailan seemed adamantine about riding into battle with the Gray Wardens, Loghain caressed the idea of betraying the King by fleeing the battlefield. To ensure this possibility, he and Uldred tried to sabotage the lighting of the beacon atop the Tower of Ishal, to have a perfect excuse for abandoning the battlefield without raising too many questions. When this part of the plan went awry, Loghain - genuinely thinking that the battle was lost - sounded the retreat and fled Ostagar, then blaiming the dead of Cailan on the Gray Wardens.

What happens next is fairly clear, in my opinion, but about this I have still many, many questions.

1. By severing Cailan's political connections, what exactly did Loghain hoped to achieve? To depose Cailan? To convince the Landsmeet that he wasn't fit for ruling Ferelden?
2. What part did Arl Rendon Howe played in Loghain's plan? Namely, is it true what Anora said, that it was Howe who poisoned Loghain's mind, persuading him to betray the King? If so, what was Arl Howe's endgame?
3. Did Loghain contacted Uldred only for the Tower of Ishal affair, or, even if wasn't sure about fleeing Ostagar, he was still planning for a civil war against Cailan and wanted to secure the favor of the Mages for himself?
4. Why Cailan was so stubborn to ride into battle right in the middle of the horde and yet so cautious to have forged an alliance with Orlais? Why didn't he waited? Did the King really believed that the battle could be won? And what about Duncan? What did Duncan believed about the battle?
5. If Duncan was in disagree with the King, was he in a position to speak up and really urge the King to wait?
6. After Ostagar, if Loghain wasn't after the throne, why he indulged in the civil war when there was dakrspawn invading the lowlands? Wouldn't it be better for him to step down and let Anora rule, so that all Ferelden could focus on the Blight?

Have I disregarded something or is my analysis accurate? If so, I want to ask the developers: are these questions legit and, if so, do you plan to address these questions maybe in the expansion?

Modifié par AndreaDraco, 08 février 2010 - 12:46 .

[Herr Uhl]

Arl Howe and Loghain got mixed up after Ostagar, once there was civil war already brewing.

[AndreaDraco]

Really? Where did you get that information? Because Howe and Loghain scene - when Howe introduces Zevran - seems to suggest a longer relationship between the two of them.

[Herr Uhl]

Well, I misread it, but I don't think Howe had anything to do with the plan at Ostagar. He might have made the paranoia about Cailan handing over Ferelden to Orlais much greater though.

Edit: I misread a Gaider quote that is.

Modifié par Herr Uhl, 08 février 2010 - 01:06 .

[ReubenLiew]

Apparently Loghain didn't know about Cailan's dalliance with the Empress Celene, since he sounds surprised about it.

Or at least someone told me.

[SinYang]

Loghain RTO quote "That cheating bastard!".

[AndreaDraco]

Maybe Loghain didn't know about the mail exchange between Cailan and Celene, but he certainly knew that the King has contacted Orlais about the Blight.

[AndreaDraco]

Another thing that popped into my head. This may well be nothing, but since I'm a conspiracy buff I put it out here: in the Human Noble Origin, Eleanor says something about Bryce bringing something back from Orlais as a gift to her. So Bryce definitely visited Orlais recently. Could it mean something?

[jsachun]

I think you may have missed that Arl Eamon was also trying to convince Cailan to divorce Anora & marry an Orlesian, because Anora wasn't providing a heir to the throne. Perhaps Loghain was aware of this & felt betrayed, politically as well as personally.

Modifié par jsachun, 08 février 2010 - 12:11 .

[AndreaDraco]

But Loghain seems to be surprised in RtO. Or maybe was he only angry for finally seeing a confirmation of his doubts?

[jsachun]

I don't know. I haven't taken Loghain to RTO yet.

[Helios969]

To my thinking the relationship between Loghain and Howe goes beyond what the game overtly presents. I played the human nobel route twice, and the fact that Howe betrays the Couslands at the precise moment they are to march to Ostagar suggests that Loghain and Howe were already conspiring together. Couple that with the poisoning of Arl Eamon (presumably this is why he is not at Ostagar) indicates Loghain's betrayal was more than mere impulse. As to Loghain's mental state, the storyline certainly foreshadows Howe as manipulator, but it isn't clear (at least to me) that Howe is responsible for Loghain's irrational behavior. The first time through I was expecting to find some darkspawn or maleficarum behind Loghain's madness. This is one of the few areas of the game that left me a bit unsatisfied.

[Sabriana]

D. Gaider stated in one of these "Loghain" dedicated threads that Howe's actions in Highever were solely his own, and that Loghain was not involved. He also stated that Eamon wasn't supposed to die, he was merely to be taken out of the equation. Hence Berwick was sent to keep an eye on things.

It also makes it believable that the Arl doesn't die when the demon is killed. The demon lied, simple as that. Shocking, I know, but what can you do.

[Helios969]

Sabriana wrote...

D. Gaider stated in one of these "Loghain" dedicated threads that Howe's actions in Highever were solely his own, and that Loghain was not involved. He also stated that Eamon wasn't supposed to die, he was merely to be taken out of the equation. Hence Berwick was sent to keep an eye on things.
It also makes it believable that the Arl doesn't die when the demon is killed. The demon lied, simple as that. Shocking, I know, but what can you do.

Loghain isn't exactly the most credible.  He has performed one despicable act after another - all for the "good of Ferelden."  In fact, taking this line of thought further, the whole game is setup as if there is some larger force at work: Loghain's madness, Howe's betrayal, the poisoning of Eamon, the chaos Bhelan perpetrates amongst the dwarves, the werewolves' sudden thirst for vengence on the Elves, the insurrection in the Tower, etc. . .  I don't know what the writer(s) intended in all this, perhaps just a series of challenges for our characters to face and overcome.  Still, I would have liked to seen some sort of reconciliation on this matter.  Perhaps it's just me. 

[draxynnus]

AndreaDraco wrote...

What happens next is fairly clear, in my opinion, but about this I have still many, many questions.

1. By severing Cailan's political connections, what exactly did Loghain hoped to achieve? To depose Cailan? To convince the Landsmeet that he wasn't fit for ruling Ferelden?

I think his ideal result really would have been for Cailen to "see reason", come to Loghain's way of thinking, and continue to reign...or at least serve as a figurehead to Anora's reign.

2. What part did Arl Rendon Howe played in Loghain's plan? Namely, is it true what Anora said, that it was Howe who poisoned Loghain's mind, persuading him to betray the King? If so, what was Arl Howe's endgame?

Good question. Ultimately, though, it wouldn't surprise me if his endgame involved the Howes being the most powerful family with an heir in Ferelden. With the Couslands dead (or so he believed), Loghain's family without issue, the arl of Denerim imprisoned or dead and Arl Eamon fathering mages, the only possible competition for the throne would be if Bann Teagan fathered children. 

3. Did Loghain contacted Uldred only for the Tower of Ishal affair, or, even if wasn't sure about fleeing Ostagar, he was still planning for a civil war against Cailan and wanted to secure the favor of the Mages for himself?

I think he'd been cultivating Uldred beforehand, but because he wanted the mages behind him in general rather than specifically for the civil war.

4. Why Cailan was so stubborn to ride into battle right in the middle of the horde and yet so cautious to have forged an alliance with Orlais? Why didn't he waited? Did the King really believed that the battle could be won? And what about Duncan? What did Duncan believed about the battle?

Too long to answer in detail here (especially since I've already done so in the "What did Cailen know...?" thread). In short, it's likely that "waiting" was an euphemism for "withdraw and abandon the citizens between Ostagar and the next good defensive point to their fates", Cailen believed it was worth making the attempt to try to hold, he continued gathering reinforcements in case they didn't hold (or even if they did, only to have a sixth, larger wave arrive later), and he stayed with the Wardens because he mistakingly believed doing so would keep Loghain honest. That's my analysis, anyway.

5. If Duncan was in disagree with the King, was he in a position to speak up and really urge the King to wait?

This one is an unknown.

6. After Ostagar, if Loghain wasn't after the throne, why he indulged in the civil war when there was dakrspawn invading the lowlands? Wouldn't it be better for him to step down and let Anora rule, so that all Ferelden could focus on the Blight?

At first glance, yes, which makes this another unknown. My guess, especially given what happened later, is that he didn't feel he could trust Anora to do what he felt needed to be done.

Helios wrote...

Loghain isn't exactly the most credible.  He has performed one despicable act after another - all for the "good of Ferelden."  In fact, taking this line of thought further, the whole game is setup as if there is some larger force at work: Loghain's madness, Howe's betrayal, the poisoning of Eamon, the chaos Bhelan perpetrates amongst the dwarves, the werewolves' sudden thirst for vengence on the Elves, the insurrection in the Tower, etc. . .  I don't know what the writer(s) intended in all this, perhaps just a series of challenges for our characters to face and overcome.  Still, I would have liked to seen some sort of reconciliation on this matter.  Perhaps it's just me. 

Well, all but two of these are connected, so it's not all that surprising. The two that aren't are Bhelen and the elves - they could be coincidence, but these could be signs that the Architect has been...designing things.

Modifié par draxynnus, 08 février 2010 - 02:10 .

[Sabriana]

Helios969 wrote...

Sabriana wrote...

D. Gaider stated in one of these "Loghain" dedicated threads that Howe's actions in Highever were solely his own, and that Loghain was not involved. He also stated that Eamon wasn't supposed to die, he was merely to be taken out of the equation. Hence Berwick was sent to keep an eye on things.
It also makes it believable that the Arl doesn't die when the demon is killed. The demon lied, simple as that. Shocking, I know, but what can you do.

Loghain isn't exactly the most credible.  He has performed one despicable act after another - all for the "good of Ferelden."  In fact, taking this line of thought further, the whole game is setup as if there is some larger force at work: Loghain's madness, Howe's betrayal, the poisoning of Eamon, the chaos Bhelan perpetrates amongst the dwarves, the werewolves' sudden thirst for vengence on the Elves, the insurrection in the Tower, etc. . .  I don't know what the writer(s) intended in all this, perhaps just a series of challenges for our characters to face and overcome.  Still, I would have liked to seen some sort of reconciliation on this matter.  Perhaps it's just me. 

David Gaider is the head-writer.

[AndreaDraco]

Well, to mention another thread, the waters at Ostagar were really murky and I can't help but hope that someone will shed some light, if not here, perhaps in the expansion.

[soteria]

I don't know why people insist on making this more complicated than it is. If Loghain didn't premeditate Cailan's murder, he certainly happened to have a lot of things in motion to capitalize on the king's unfortunate demise. He had motive, means, and opportunity, and he took that opportunity at Ostagar.

The waters are only murky at Ostagar if you insist on muddying them and inventing a story (like, "Loghain could see PART of the fight, but not the WHOLE fight, and what he saw was enough to know he had to pull out but not enough to see the right time to attack in the first place.").

Modifié par soteria, 08 février 2010 - 03:29 .

[Sabriana]

You're right, Andrea, they are murky, and they are further murkied up by RtO, or so I've heard.

Technically, Loghain couldn't exactly count on Cailan being killed in battle, before the battle even began. Neither one believed this to be a true blight, and aside from that, the king and his troops already won three battles.

I think that's purposely done, just to keep the discussions and the interest up. Not a bad move by the devs, actually.

[AndreaDraco]

Definitely not a bad move, but I'd like to understand better Loghain's plan, because it's one of the major storylines in the game and the only one that continues to baffle me in places.

[_- Songlian -]

Sabriana wrote...

 Neither one believed this to be a true blight, and aside from that, the king and his troops already won three battles.

Is there any information on how much time Cailan - and his troups - had spent in Ostagar by the time Duncan returns with the Grey Warden? Also, were all three previous battles fought there, or somewhere else, perhaps in the Korcari Wilds?

It's something that I've been wondering and haven't found any response so far, but it's quite possible that I've missed it.

Modifié par - Songlian -, 08 février 2010 - 04:13 .

[Sabriana]

I wish I could find that old thread. It's huge and Gaider had a lot to say about Loghain. If I have the time, I'll try and find it



Songlian, it sounded to me that the king and his army battled those darkspawn at Ostagar. I got that from certain dialogue choices, but I can't say for sure which ones. Both my HNF were polite enough to the king in his face, but I do remember picking "He's a fool" when talking to Duncan afterward.

In the wilds, at least the part the PC sees, there isn't really any sign to be seen that a (or several) large scale battles took place there. The dead soldiers look like scouting troops.

[darrenr22]

Far be it from me to question the "Word of God" but if David Gaider really did say that Howe was not in league with Lhogain when he attacked Highever that makes Howe's action there utterly inexplicable. It makes sense if one assumes that Howe knew that Cailen would be in no position to bring him to justice for attacking Castle Cousland but if not...

As Cailen remarks at Ostagar if you are playing the human noble origin, after Duncan breaks the news of Teyrn Cousland's death: "How could he think to get away it?"

The only way his action makes sense is if Howe knew that Cailen would be in no position to punish him, rather an ally of Howe would soon be running the show.

Modifié par darrenr22, 08 février 2010 - 04:25 .

[AndreaDraco]

I just checked what the Dragon Age wikia has to say about Loghain and look:

Loghain is responsible for devising the tactics that will be used in the Battle of Ostagar. Although Loghain advises Cailan not to fight on the front line, Cailan wants to fight with his men, away from Loghain. As part of his plan, Loghain and the bulk of the army will stay apart from King Cailan and the Grey Wardens and wait for a beacon to be lit, signalling Loghain and his men to come in and flank the darkspawn. However, the Wardens are delayed and the beacon is not lit on time. When the beacon is lit the valley of Ostagar is already overrun with darkspawn and Loghain retreats, leaving King Cailan and the Grey Wardens to die.

This explanation seems to tell a whole different story, no?

[_- Songlian -]

Sabriana wrote...

Songlian, it sounded to me that the king and his army battled those darkspawn at Ostagar. I got that from certain dialogue choices, but I can't say for sure which ones. Both my HNF were polite enough to the king in his face, but I do remember picking "He's a fool" when talking to Duncan afterward.
In the wilds, at least the part the PC sees, there isn't really any sign to be seen that a (or several) large scale battles took place there. The dead soldiers look like scouting troops.

The hanged ones, yup. Thanks!