Well, assuming a Paragon playthrough where everybody has survived (I'm not sure if the Renegade version would be much different, I haven't done it yet):
Zaeed: You just told Cerberus to go screw themselves. Zaeed was on their payroll. He has no reason to stick around.
Samara: Has promised to come back to help you if you need it. I can't see her being a party member, though. Perhaps she rallies the Justicars, or else she helps in a different way (much like Wrex "helps you" on Tuchanka).
Mordin: Is proud to be part of Shepard's team. I can see him staying aboard the Normandy as a doctor but not a squadmate. There's not really much left to learn about the guy, so he doesn't need extensive dialog or anything. Also, if Chakwas died, somebody has to replace her.
Thane: I can see a part in the game where you to have to choose between letting Thane die and doing something that will hurt the Reapers, or going off to find a cure for him. This doesn't mean he will be a squadmate, though. Possibly as an agent in the field, or he's off bonding with his son. Or else, he just died between games.
Jacob: He's done with Cerberus, he's done with the Alliance. The Normandy is his home, and he still has to spill some drinks on the Citadel. He's not going anywhere.
Miranda: See the above, minus the bit about spilling drinks on the Citadel. She's in for the ride too.
Grunt/Wrex: Grunt has no reason to go anywhere either. Unless you started with a default Shep and screwed up or played the worst Renegade in the history of Renegades, the odds of both him and Wrex being dead are astronomical. We're going to have a Krogan party member no matter what, and I'd be extremely surprised if it was someone new. I can see Wrex sitting back to let Grunt take the lead, since many people disagree with Wrex himself (not so much his policies, just him) and running off to join Shepard on a spelunking trip through space. But like I said, one of them is leading the krogan and one of them is on the Normandy.
Jack: She had a lot of character development and has room for a lot more. Add this to the fact that she really has nothing better to do, and unless she's your LI there's almost no way for her to impact the plot significantly anyway (and if she is your LI, then she's guaranteed to be alive), and she's a given to come back, I think.
Legion: Shepard's tie to the geth. Unlikely that he and Tali will be a squadmate. Allows for extremely deep, emotionally engaging decision: does Shepard even see the geth as alive, or are they just worthless machines? And if they are alive, does he side with them, since they have the moral highground, or the petulant quarians? And if he does side with the quarians, is he siding with them because he believes it's the right thing to do... or because he cares about Tali? I can see a lot of awesomeness happening with a conflict like that. I think it's feasible, and the Legion/Tali fight in ME2 foreshadows it.
Garrus: We love him. They love him. He's Shepard's right-hand man. He'll be back.
Tali: We love her. They love her. She's a potential love-interest. She's Shepard's tie to the qurians. A storm is brewing. BioWare would probably have to work harder to make the game without her than with her.
Ashley/Kaiden: One of them is coming back. That's confirmed in everything but straight-up verbal confirmation.
Liara: They have no reason to not bring her back. I mean, she's alive no matter what.
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That puts us with Garrus, Tali/Legion, Grunt/Wrex, Ashey/Kaiden, Liara, Miranda, Jacob and Jack as likely squadmates. That's eight. I also seem to remember someone somewhere saying that BioWare was working on new characters already, so that could put us back up to the ten that ME2 had. It also leaves other characters, with better chances of dying (compare the amount of people that lost Mordin to the amount of people that lost Grunt), a window to come back into the game and be there for the ride, just not with a prominent role.
Changin' the world, one catchphrase at a time!
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